Divorce; Not What It Was

Challenging must read piece from the eclectic website, Delancy Place and taken from "I Don't: A Contrarian History of Marriage," by Susan Square.

"For nearly a thousand years, an Englishman sick of his wife could slip a halter around her neck, lead her to market -- the cattle market -- and sell her to the highest bidder, often with her willing participation. This informal route to divorce for the lower classes lasted, amazingly, until at least 1887. ... [As reported by non-fiction authors Lawrence Stone in The Family Sex and Marriage and Samuel Menefee in Wives for Sale] a drunken husband sells his wife in the opening chapter of Thomas Hardy's The Mayor of Casterbridge (1886), much to the astonishment of contemporary critics. Oblivious to the informal unlawful marriage and divorce customs of the less literate brethren ('wife-sale' dates back to c. 1073), they could not imagine such a thing happening on British soil in the nineteenth century, even though popular broadsides depicting the practice (one of which illustrates the cover of Menefee's book) were still being produced and widely circulated during that same century. ...

"[In the Old Testament, the law allowed for divorce because of infertility and] Israelite men could divorce their wives for reasons far more vague than infertility. (Wives couldn't divorce their husbands for any reason.) If, for instance, 'she fails to please him because he finds something obnoxious about her,' there's no need to hire a pricey lawyer. He simply 'writes her a bill of divorcement, hands it to her and sends her away from his house.' He'd better be sure this is what he wants, because he can't have her back again. ...


"The Bible, leaving nothing to chance, provides soldiers with a lesson on the fine art of taking enemy women to wife after the enemy has been vanquished. ... You don't just throw her to the ground and have your way with her then and there.  You don't throw her on the ground at all. And you don't have your way with her for an entire month. No, 'you shall bring her into your house, and she shall trim her hair, pare her nails, and discard her captive's garb. She shall spend a month's time in your house, lamenting her father and mother; after that you may come to her and possess her, and she shall be your wife.' The lesson includes instruction on how to get rid of her, too. No bill of divorcement is required, but restrictions do apply: 'Then, should you no longer want her, you must release her outright. You must not sell her for money; since you had your will of her, you must not enslave her.' "

Tesco; The Nightmare

Tesco; The Nightmare

Tesco is in a mess. As the creative financial façade is ripped away the stock market is rightly giving the shares brutal treatment. When trust is impaired it is very difficult to restore. The company is not yet in a death spiral but experience demands we remember, "there is never only one cockroach."

I have only simple questions at this point,

  • Are these fit and proper people to hold a banking licence?
  • The same accountants and investment bankers who advise Tesco advise other corporates. Are these practices common?
  • Will officers of the company who personally benefited from erroneous and misleading accounting be brought to account for their actions?
  • Will the government seize the moment and bring a heavy hand to bear on large corporates who use their scale to exploit small suppliers; effectively making small firms borrow and use their balance sheets to part fund the larger entities operations?


Understanding War

Bad guys

President Obama has just finished talking at the UN where he said the world must act to "reject the cancer of violent extremism." He also talked about the Ukraine, Ebola and the Israel / Palastinian problem but it is clear that minds are focused on clearing out ISIL.

I think many Western and Middle Eastern countries view the Arab Spring as a lucky escape. This new and very different fundamentalist threat though has them very concerned. Many players, or the way they present it, view ISIL as a pestilence that can be eradicated. I'm not so sure it will be that simple. What the papers here haven’t explained is that ISIL are well organised and well led to an extent that is little understood. They have a command structure and operate tactically on the ground to a strategic plan with strategic goals. They have many Chechen's in their leadership so any view of them being a bunch of bloodthirsty mad rag-heads is misplaced.  Its going to take a lot more than air strikes to clean this up.

Recent ISW update

Well informed reporting however is difficult for the passing observer to come by, I'm here to help. These guys, The Institute for the Study of War, send regular updates on the situation on the ground. You can also find updates on other security matters pertaining to the Middle East and Afghanistan and also some reports. The one below, A Strategy to Defeat the Islamic State, written by Kimberly Kagan, Frederick W. Kagan, and Jessica D. Lewis, is well worth a read. Knowledge dispels fear!


Markets; Walking on Ice

You certainty do.....

An opportune time for a distraction into markets which despite looking firm optically are a lot more fragile and shaky beneath.

A poor start to the week then with the G20 joining the IMF and BIS with bubble warnings and of course TSCO which says it has uncovered a “serious” issue, is investigating and has suspended a number of staff; "Principally due to the accelerated recognition of commercial income and delayed accrual of costs". Yep, £250m is serious all right. Something the now suspended UK CEO can reflect on. The fact that small chocolate supplier Moo Free Chocolate had to threaten the firm with a winding up order to receive a payment more than three months overdue is a tell on the internal culture. Tesco is many things but from a market point of view its like a bank, you simply don’t know what is in there because clearly the management don’t. Today’s announcement does though, come after a long period of shall we say financial flair during which return on capital employed deteriorated while EPS increased. Terry Smiths article in the FT earlier this month gave a good précis.

 The Alibaba IPO came and went. Its market cap of $168bn at the offering price made it the 36th most valuable company in the world which clearly wasn’t enough for the market which pushed it up another 50%. Buyers don’t of course get shares in the company. Instead they receive units in a Cayman Islands holding company. It makes most of its money in China, lacks transparency and there is no lock up period for the $8bn worth of units that can be sold. Think I’ve heard enough.

Taper will begin to have a deleterious impact on markets; it has to. In effect, the Fed is draining liquidity with its massive position in securities issued by corporations and government. As issues mature and coupons are due, money will flow to the Fed from the issuers withdrawing money from the economy. It’s tightening in all but name and its not a great time for that to happen. The Fed delayed a cathartic clean out with QE but having kicked the can down the road we’re arriving at the spot where it landed. Velocity of money slowing and tighter lending are not what equities like to hear.

Hindenburg Omen back again to cheer us up

Market participants should be braced for more negative headlines and by now be positioned defensively. The market is in a fragile and precarious place. Thursdays first Hindenburg signal was confirmed with another on Friday. That means that we have a 25% probability of a crash in the next four months. In itself that’s something we can manage but with the timing coinciding with the negative divergence in the NYSE cumulative advance/decline line and the 23 year maturing Jaws of Death Megaphone Top pattern we have a confluence of indicators bearing down which ought to make us sit up and take notice.

On Friday, New Highs were 128 and New Lows 102, the lower being 3.14% above the 2.20% threshold. New highs were not more than twice new lows, the McClellan Oscillator was negative and the 50 day moving average was higher than it was 10 weeks ago. With the exception of the mini crash of summer 2011, a HO has been present in every crash for the past 27 years but there hasn’t been a crash every time a HO signal has appeared.

 The divergence in the NYSE Cumulative Advance Decline Line started at the beginning of the month and is moving rapidly. The depth is similar to that last seen in 2007.  We also see negative divergence in the Russell and NASDAQ 10 day moving average Advance/Decline Line.

 Despite the record high close in the Dow on Friday decliners outnumbered advancers with a ratio of 1.4:1. As we discussed last week, many parts of the stock market hit highs months and months ago and have been in decline since. Yet we continue to see headlines typical of euphoric phases such as those alluding to luxury goods, residential and commercial property, art and tech. That the Russell 2000 is at a 22 month low ought to be a concern for investors. UK small caps are in a better place but for how long I wouldn’t like to speculate.

The original expectation of a 5-10% correction is still good but these other developments are telling us that while equities may look good optically, in fact market psychology beneath the surface is quickly turning negative. The expected correction could surprise to the downside.

The SKEW Index which we discussed on Friday closed at 146.08; that’s the highest reading since 1989. This index indicates that option traders are pricing in a near record probability of a large move in the next month.

European equities will also reverse this week. Quite simply, take nothing at face value; equities are displaying multiple exhaustion signs and are walking on ice.

Commodities meanwhile are not making life easy for anyone. On the one hand, multiple commodities are at multiyear support points; on the other the broad based commodity indexes are not a picture of health and vitality. At some point liquidity will flow from equities into the commodity complex but right now they are signalling deflation. If these already oversold assets are hit hard again there is a pretty simple message for equities there.

Gold, silver, Euro and Sfr all on support lines going back to the early 2000’s.

…. And the converse of those is the USD which is back at long term resistance and where bullish sentiment is plentiful.

Crude is back to 5 year support which really needs to hold.  It could drop rather a long way if it fails. Oil is probably waiting for the dollar to top but the rest of the commodity complex is unlikely to get a lift unless oil is leading.

Gold bulls need to be prepared. If they're not yet in the bunker they should be.

This week could be a bad one for precious metals. Fasten seat belts and cross check. Gold is sinking into its capitulation phase. It’s taken a while. I first decribed this in a piece called “Panic and Opportunity,” back in April. “A failure there, ($1280), will demoralise gold bulls but it will portend a more significant fall to the Dec low at $1180 with a possibility of the $1050’s beyond. A collapse to those levels would obliterate sentiment, create forced sellers and create the conditionality required for a final bear market cathartic cleansing thereby forming a firm base from which to move into a multi year bull market. That point of maximum pain will be the point of maximum opportunity but it will feel gut wrenching to pull the trigger when everyone else is racing round with their pants on their head.” Not much to add to that.

We can expect a reasonable bounce from daily cycle lows in the precious metals but most rallies will be met with more selling. We need to get through the cathartic washout to create the foundation for a long term rally.

In summary then, we’re about to see the kind of volatility usually associated with  the second half of September. Nothing unusual there but given the fragility of markets which has been largely ignored by the media surprise moves, and risk, therefore lie to the downside.

Stand-Out Stand-Up Guy

Jim Murphy doing the Hard Yards

One or two good reflective pieces appearing with this one, again from the excellent Alex Massie, of note and some analysis from Lord Ashcroft's post referendum poll in the Spectator coffee House here.

For me, the stand-out stand-up man of the campaign, on either side, was Labour MP Jim Murphy. His 100 Towns in 100 Days tour will be long remembered.

If David Cameron is serious about connecting with the huge swathes of disaffected citizens in the UK he could make a good start by getting the MP for East Renfrewshire, Jim Murphy, on board the Governments team in respect of Scottish affairs and the devolution of more promised responsibility to Edinburgh. He is a Labour politician so I probably don't agree with most of his political beliefs but frankly, that's unimportant at this time and it shouldn't be for David Cameron. Right now there's a pretty loud message coming through that even Westminster can't continue to ignore.......... start listening. Murphy strikes me as the man who can plug in to both sides and who is strident enough to cope with the sometime boisterous character of Scottish politics.

Jim Murphy

Throwing a New Year Honour his way would to my mind be a somewhat cheap. There's work to be done and I wouldn't mind betting he'd be up for it. In any event, I intend to write to him to offer my appreciation for his efforts that made the rest of the headless chickens look like.... well, headless chickens.


Jockageddon Averted - Now It's England's Turn

Commentary and analysis from referendum observers is being produced by the bucket load, not all of it has substance. Here though are some salient points to note from friend Marcus Ashworth, Head of Fixed Income over at Espirito Santo, and he writes really, with no particular axe to grind..

"It was Crumble's Ma wot did it........ the silent majority came out in droves to register their understated desire to retain the Union, whereas in Glasgow the turnout was one of the lowest and 53.5/46.5% was not enough of a Yes vote to give Salmond a chance.  Despite all the puff he didn't get his vote out, and in what was probably the largest % turnout in a modern democracy ever (Aus doesn't count as semi-forced voting).  Bully boy tactics clearly backfired.

A double digit majority was what was required to put this issue to bed for now - though of course Salmond doesn't have that in his nature - "at this stage" was a particularly telling phrase in his most ungracious acceptance of defeat speech.  Evidently his only tactic left is to try and grab as much of the "vows" as possible.  However, Number 10 apparently has some other ideas and talk of Devo Max is being downplayed.

The chat from Downing St seeems to a swift volte face to try and redress the growing clamour from the Tory backbenches about what Gordy was allowed to promise in the final days?  For all the sense of panic it is evident that Gordy had this worked out many months ago but was only sanctioned to unleash the dogs of war in the final nail-biting furlong.  His last speech was apparently his best, though equally Cameron did his bit under unrelenting abuse.  The Better Together campaign was pretty much totally Scottish Labour led and Tory free, it is not the winner though.  Labour party conf in Manchester - Ed needs an even better speech this time - pref without that Disraeli one-nation blather.

The West Lothian question is the key piece of egregiousness that will have to be finally knocked on the head - something that Labour has conspicuously failed to do.  Scottish MPs will soon no longer be allowed to vote on England only matters - whilst of course English MPs have never been allowed to vote on Scottish matters.  This will pose a knotty one for Miliband because it could very well permanently emasculate Labour Govts if on budgetary matters there is not enough of an English-only MP backing.  The Barnett formula (which even its eponymous creator thinks should be scrapped) will stick in the craw.  If affords a permanent upward only subsidy of circa £1500 per person to Scotland over rest of UK.  This has not gone down well south of the border.  At all.

Cameron may have been knifed by Clegg on the Boundary Commission changes (which is the most outrageous breach of code for the so-called Mother of Parliaments) - but this way he may partly get his own back.  If he fails then he will really face the chop from the 1922 cmte.  Bear in mind Clacton by-election shortly will see a big slap for Cameron - and his image is very much of the "essay crisis".  Tricky times if he drops this ball on Constitutional change - especially if Salmond gets traction on any perceived signs of backsliding on the vows.

Labour has acted appallingly throughout this campaign being utterly self-serving and using every opportunity to try and turn a battle to save the Union into a call for a Labour Govt next May.  If Miliband fails to engage in a William Hague (as Leader of the House) overseen all-party talks, then it will be Labour who will carry the can for failing to deliver on the myriad of promises offered up by their last Prime Minister.

If only for that fact Cameron should emerge from this as the biggest winner and it's a 2nd big win for him after seeing off the Lib Dems on proportional representation, is he on a roll for winning in Europe as well?   OK that might be a leap of faith too far - still the gamble has largely paid off and the Tories can get to shape constitutional change whilst still in power.  That is a major, major difference from the expected situation that the next Labour Govt (as the polls still point to) would carve it up as they see fit.

........... welcome back Scotland

I find it hard to see (bar Gordy, Darling to some extent and of course the redoubtable Jim Murphy who will clearly get a Knighthood) who in Labour comes out of this with any accolades.  Miliband is a dead man walking - and he knows it.  It is one thing for Cameron to find it difficult to campaign in Scotland but for a Labour leader not to either basically bother to get up there until the last few moments and then not to be capable of walking through Edinburgh is a travesty of not just how the Yes campaign has been conducted but of Miliband's validity.  Clegg has proved that the Lib Dem vote has vaporised.  Question now is whether Salmond can survive, let's hope not as he allowed a very dirty campaign to get quite seriously out of hand - he deserves to go just for that alone.  Only Farage had the temerity to call him out for that."


Scottish Independence; Phew!

Crumble, up bright and early and on my way to work this morning

Well what a night! There must be some weapons grade hangovers out there. At one point, after Glasgow came in, there were only 500 votes between No and Yes. 

There is a lot of healing and a lot of work to be done in all parts of this Kingdom.

Biggest winners? Definitely democracy, (the turnout numbers are simply stunning), and UKIP who will benefit from a similar anti Westminster backlash in England but we know that, (the one liner doing the rounds this morning is "if the Scottish wanted independence they should have let the English vote). The biggest loser is obviously not Salmond, (who I think is walking away with a massive sense of relief having got exactly what he set out to achieve), but Andy Murray. Never liked him. The absence of grace is breathtaking. 

More later

Scottish Independence; Words From The Wise

One of the best pipe bands in the world playing one of my favourite tunes. The word dignity springs to mind. The Queen's Own Highlanders Association Pipe Band in Cameron Barracks, Inverness, 2010. The 79th's Farewell to Gibraltar. 

The speeches are done, the marches, the meetings, the doorstepping. Those of us beyond Scotland look back and trust that sense and pragmatism will prevail for none of us want to see an economic and social darkness overcome family and friends to the north. 

Here then, are some words from a bloke who knew a thing or two about these British Isles.

Extracts from a speech given by Winston Churchill on receiving the Freedom of Edinburgh on October 12th, 1942.

I have never before been made a freeman of any city, and although since the war I have been complimented by a number of invitations which I greatly value, your freedom is the only one I have felt myself so far able to receive in the hard stress of conditions.

It seems to me that Edinburgh, the ancient capital of Scotland, enshrined in the affection of the Scottish race all over the world, great in memories and tradition, immortal in its collective personality-Edinburgh stands by itself, and therefore I am here to-day to be refreshed by your very great kindness and inspiration and to receive the all too flattering tribute from my old friend William Y. Darling, the Lord Provost.

The old quarrels, the age-long feuds, which rend our island have been ended centuries ago by the union of the Crown and by the happy fulfillment of the prophecy that wherever the Stone of Scone shall rise the Scottish race shall reign.

I have some ties with Scotland which are of great significance, ties precious and lasting. First of all, I decided to be born on St. Andrew's Day, and it was to Scotland that I went to find my wife, who is unable to be present to-day through temporary indisposition. I commanded a Scottish battalion of the famous 21st Regiment for five months in the last war in France. I sat for 15 years as the representative of Bonnie Dundee, and I might be sitting for it still if the matter had rested entirely with me. Although I have found what I trust is a permanent and happy home in the glades of Epping Forest, I still reserve affectionate memories of the banks of the Tay.

Now you have given me a new tie which I shall value as long as I live. We call ourselves in our grand alliance the United Nations. Here, indeed, is an example of national unity.

And so the country is pulling together better now than ever before in its history. Cruel blows, like the loss of the original 51st Division in France, have been borne with fortitude and silent dignity. A new 51st Division has been formed and will sustain the reputation and avenge the fortunes of its forerunner. The air bombing was endured with courage and resource. In all the Services, on sea, land, and air, on merchant ships and in all the many forms of service which this great struggle has called for, Scotsmen have gained distinction. 

Surveying both sides of the account, good and bad, with equal composure and coolness, we must see that we have reached a stern and sombre moment in the war which calls in a high degree of firmness of spirit and constancy of soul. The excitement and the emotion of those great days when we stood alone, undaunted against what seemed overwhelming odds, and single-handed saved the future of the world, are not present now. We are surrounded by governments and nations, all of us bound together in a solemn unbreakable alliance, and all of us bound together by ties not only of honour but of self-preservation.

Deadly dangers still beset us. Weariness, complacency or discord, squabbles over petty matters will mar our prospects. We must all drive ourselves to the utmost limit of our strength. We must preserve and refine our sense of proportion. We must strive to combine the virtues of wisdom and of daring. We must move forward together, united and inexorable.

Thus with God's blessing the hopes which we are now justified in feeling will not fade or wither. The light is broadening on the track. And the light is brighter, too. Among the qualities for which Scotland is renowned steadfastness holds, perhaps, the highest place. Be steadfast, then; that is the message which I bring you, that is my invocation to the Scottish nation here in this ancient capital city, one of whose burgesses I now have the honour to be.

Let me use the words of your famous minstrel-words which have given comfort and renewed strength to many a burdened heart:

"Keep right on to the end of the road, 
Keep right on to the end."

Churchill

Commanding Officer, 6th Battalion Royal Scots Fusiliers, 1916.

Scottish Independence; The Final Furlong

Final furlong

Heading into the final week of campaigning in front of the most momentous vote that Scots will take in their lifetimes and with the rest of the Kingdom strictly relegated to observer status, mixed emotions are increasingly evident. Many can see victory within their grasp and are beginning to see red mist. Their claims become more emotionally charged and factually outrageous by the day. Others are suffering from referendum fatigue and simply want a quick end to it all and to be allowed to get on with their lives while some are sucked into a vortex of questioning disbelief, worry and anxiety for the future.

“No,” would appear to be slightly in the lead but with a tolerance of + or – 3pts in these polls it really is all to play for. I do though hear more stories of stupid and crass low level intimidation from the “Yes,” campaign from the Highlands to the Borders. I think we’ll hear more about this after the vote but one thing is for sure and for certain, when individuals are in that voting booth they can tick which ever box they wish with absolute privacy and impunity. That’s exactly the point when Mr Salmond may regret not reigning in the more febrile elements of his campaign.

Standing back from the melee for a moment I can’t help but think how badly planned and handled the entire enterprise has been from every constituent part. That with four days to go the level of informed debate is better suited to the cut and thrust of a mid-term by-election is nothing short of an international embarrassment. Peoples livelihoods and their economic future are at risk here and they deserve better. So does the rest of the United Kingdom.

Both campaigns have in fact completely missed the target. Salmond has failed to invest in time and energy to create a sound intellectual case for independence and instead has leaned far too heavily on transient soundbites, reviving ancient mistrust of the English, (that many voters have no lineage to anyway), questionable election practices, a nostalgia for a post war economy that has forever gone and oil and well, oil. Creating a dependency for the well being, health and education of 5m people on the price of a globally traded commodity would to me seem a somewhat casual approach to policy but what do I know?

What did you expect Nick when you asked an awkward question at a press conference. The SNP, reinventing East Germany.

An independent Scotland though is of course possible and indeed could be more of a reality if Salmond and his hopeless band of backward looking socialists embraced a culture and manifesto of socially liberal, economically conservative policies that enthusiastically sought openness, collaboration, partnership and participation. That’s not going to happen though. The SNP is a small minded, spiteful and resentful collection of miscreants who in the best traditions of modern politics will promise everything to everyone and deliver nothing except value destruction and national strife.

There is the possibility that the electorate vote for independence then immediately vote the SNP out, preferring instead individuals capable of doing the job properly but they are in short supply in Scottish politics. I think such an echo of Churchill being tossed out from government in the 1945 election is unlikely; the SNP have simply left it too late having relied too much on what they perceive to be a spirit of nationalism and they have left too many open questions unanswered.   

It would have been so much better to make the case ex oil and ex the EU and sell those as added bonus’s. Salmond should have focused on a very gradual disconnect with the rest of the UK with multiple joint ventures and collaborations, with checkpoints, at the sovereign, financial and social level. He should have warned every Scot that this momentous decision was one they were entrusted with on behalf of their children and subsequent generations. That for most Scots there would be no immediate financial uplift. That in fact the benefits would take a minimum of ten years to accrue, if not a generation. He should have asked, “Is that a sacrifice you are prepared to make?” He should have reminded, if not berated his potential voters that Scotland suffers from a corrosive drug problem, galloping ill health in some areas and a bewildering and growing culture of dependency on government. He should have reminded Scots of their heritage and what he intended to do to unleash the capacity of Scots to revive, invent and build based on a competitive and forward looking education system and an environment which allows business to thrive. Instead, he’s just shovelled out a truck load of lies, half-truths and  cynical scare stories that add nothing to the debate and diminish his appeal to voters. Voters see through this nonsense and his standing has fallen commensurate with the diminishing integrity of his argument. He will lose on Thursday and he need look no further than himself to blame.

Not all one way traffic; 5000 gather in Edinburgh yesterday

The No campaign meanwhile has been equally poor. In fact, its been an utter shambles. The “Keep Calm,” approach was chucked on the bonfire last week when the enormity of the weapons grade fuck up they’d made of it became apparent in the polls. They will probably pull it off in the end but it will be in spite of their efforts not because of them. In fact, it will largely be the pragmatic and sensible undecided Scottish housewife who rescues them. I don’t imagine she has much love for either side but will instead vote for whoever she thinks will cause her family the least dislocation and worry. I don’t blame her. The failure of the “No,” campaign to properly articulate the benefit of being a Scot within the United Kingdom is symptomatic of our hermetic national politicians and the arms length political class we’ve created. Here though is a man who can and in fact is one of the few who has written sensibly about the issues at hand for some considerable time, Alex Massie. Worth a read.

The winner in all of this, and there aren’t many, is UKIP who will benefit from an English reaction to an independence vote but also to an excess of largesse with Devo Max. The driving undercurrent is anyway, a rumbling dissatisfaction with central government which has resonance throughout the UK and indeed in many European countries beyond.

Referendum fatigue, voters deserve better

That general feeling of dissatisfaction was nicely articulated by a chum in the Highlands over the weekend,

“I took a wee wander with the dog the other day to pass the time and popped in for a pint. On looking up at the sign above my watering hole, it read - The Royal British Legion (Scotland) Branch. I pondered and wondered what that will be called next week?  Anyway, I digress...

It was a lovely sunny day so I sat outside at a table and during my time there, I chatted to several tourists from the Manchester area about various topics, weather, how nice it was 'up here' etc, etc.... and of course the referendum. It was quite surreal actually, with about a 50/50 split in how the 'tourists' would vote if they had the chance, which came as a bit of a surprise. 'Westminster' isn't too popular in the North of England either it seems...

Also sat with me was a wise old piper, now in his eighties, who served his Queen and country well when he was in his prime and he eventually summed it all up in a few ( or quite a few...) words.

He was sitting quietly listening to all the opinions, not saying anything - apart from humming his usual heedrum hodrum pipe tunes aloud until he finally stopped 'playing' his imaginary pipes and he said;

‘Och!! I'm sick o' the whole damned thing!

Some days I wake up and my heart says Yes, but my head says No.

On other days my heart says No, but my head says Yes.

The problem is I can never get the two of them to agree.

I've listened to everything all these (*expletive*) politicians have said and all I have to do now, is decide which lot of the (*another expletive*) are lying the least!’

That for me, sums it up in a nutshell.........”

Indeed it does.