What Mr Cameron Should Say

We're all pretty uninspired with being constantly berated with warnings of gloom and despondency should we have the temerity to vote to leave the EU. It goes against the national character to just give up and meekly toe the line. David Cameron and the Remain camp have so far failed to articulate a positive path forward which will not only be good for the UK but also kick start the process of drawing the rest of the EU together which is anyway, decaying from within, something that few are keen to draw any attention to. 

How then, should David Cameron tackle this deficit in vision and positive thinking?

It is a basic truism in politics that what you see on the surface does not in any way reflect what lies beneath. When all the rhetoric is over and the votes counted, many in the remain camp will be keen to restore business as usual. That would be the world where we tolerate the meddlesome excesses of Brussels and where the government of the day can park troublesome ministers or ex ministers who have been turfed out by the electorate into enhanced pension positions in Brussels. David Cameron should rip up the status quo and make it clear that this referendum is a game changer. If we vote to stay, we'll be fielding our A team from here on in, not the wheezy boys with coughs and notes from their Mum on the bench.

 A civil service office in Madras, India during the British Raj

In another age 1,000 British civil servants ran the Indian Civil Service. That was on average of one civil servant for every 300,000 Indians, (although the total number had fallen to 688 by the time of partition). It is broadly acknowledged that they did a pretty good job. All of them however, were the very best candidates for the job on offer, having studied either at Oxbridge, the School of Oriental studies or Trinity College, Dublin. Similarly, British officers in the Indian Army had to pass out in the top half of their course at Sandhurst to have a chance of being selected for the Indian Army and when serving in India promotion was subject to passing examinations in Urdu.

1975 was a more positive campaign by 10 miles of good road

David Cameron should take inspiration from this experience and  make it clear that mediocrity will no longer be accepted, that we are going to engage with Europe by deploying our brightest and best minds at the political and administrative level and no individual can expect advancement to the highest reaches of their government career paths without serious time spent in Europe. He should emphasise that his administrations new mission to 'inform and influence,' policy and decision making in Brussels has the highest priority and the British government will henceforth take a long term view of its involvement at every level. The education system, honours system, diplomatic corp and government HR policies will be directed to reflect this new positive stance. "If we are going to do it, we are going to do it better than before and better than anyone else." Europeans will immediately adopt the look of stunned mullets, such will be the hanging air of disbelief but it would sway many voters currently sitting on the fence.

The Prime Minister won't do any of this of course. He is following the advice of his advisors to, 'scare the bejeesus out of them.' Personally, I think that tactic is past it's point of what usefulness it may have had and is now producing negative drag on the Remain campaign. I happen to hold that very positive mental attitude on the prospect of leaving but can see it can swing both ways for here is the thing, optimism and enthusiasm are infectious.

Luvvie Who?

Next up in joining the unseemly rush to join the list marked, "Next Honours List," we have 300  narcissistic and self obsessed luvvies, (I've never heard of 290 of them), signing a letter preaching what is good for the rest of us. Sorry to disappoint all these precious princesses but who exactly cares what they think?

Brexit Ahoy!

As June 23rd rumbles into view the debate, such as it is, is reaching new levels of hysteria with the Prime Minister this morning citing the increased risk of a ground war in Europe as a reason not to leave the EU. That follows utter nonsense promulgated by ex heads of intelligence over the weekend in a letter to the Sunday Times, one of which has already been discredited with the disclosure that he said completely the opposite in a recent private conversation. The spooks, whose entire careers are based on disinformation and manipulation, should get back in their Box. 

The problem for the Remain campaign is that the British voter has so far been implacably unmoved by scare tactics and misinformation from both sides. It is a bigger problem for Remain because they need to mobilise their voters on the day whereas the Brexit camp are already motivated to make an active choice. Remain will also suffer because many students, who generally are more relaxed about the status quo, will have left university, some will have cocked up their voter registrations and be unable to vote from home, others will be travelling while some will find it too much trouble to get out of bed. 

In general, the campaigns have been unimaginative and negative. That largely reflects the quality of our politicians and comes as no surprise at all to any of us. Neither side is really pitching a positive vision of what their favoured outcome would look like. There are no sunlit uplands to behold, only scorched earth if we don't vote their way.... apparently. 

There is however, a genuine thirst for knowledge out there, certainly among people to whom I have spoken, and a frustration that there is no balance sheet of facts on which to base a fair and measured decision. That is, voters seem to me to be treating the referendum with much more earnest reverence than are either the campaign leaders or the media. 

It has long been my view that on the day most voters will disregard the hyperbole, walk into the voting booth and go with their gut instinct. Like it or not, immigration will be a big factor in nudging that instinct. Many of our citizens see their life chances and opportunities being impacted by unrestricted immigration and the flavour and character of their homeland changing in years when before it would have happened imperceptibly over decades or centuries. Many Remain campaigners simply will not accept this but then many of them are those least affected by immigration or benefit directly from cheaper labour. I am well versed in the advantages of selective immigration just as I am of the unintended consequences of the current situation in which we find ourselves. No one is suggesting we slam the door shut forever but the current policy is simply unsustainable. Here then, are some of the facts from Migration Watch UK that will be weighing on voters minds,

  1. The current scale of migration to the UK, 330,000 a year, of which roughly half is from the EU, is completely unsustainable.
  2. As a result of this mass immigration our population is projected to rise by half a million every year – the equivalent of a city the size of Liverpool – for as long as immigration is permitted on the present scale.
  3. England is already twice as crowded as Germany and 3.5 times as crowded as France.
  4. The additional population growth makes congestion worse and adds to the pressures on public services. This comes at a time when public spending is being reduced.
  5. One in four children born in England and Wales is to a foreign born mother. The rise in the number of births has put pressure on NHS maternity services.
  6. It has also led to a shortage of school places. 60% of local authorities will have a shortage of primary school places by 2018.
  7. The UK has a serious housing crisis. Mass immigration is the main reason for the additional demand. We must build a new home every six minutes for the next 20 years to accommodate the additional demand for housing from new migrants.
  8. Population growth on this scale renders integration of newcomers virtually impossible.
  9. Three quarters of the public want to see immigration reduced and half of them want it cut by a lot.
  10. To stop the rapid rise in the UK’s population size, net migration would have to be reduced to well below 100,000 a year. It is currently at over 300,000.

The Remain campaign also makes the galloping assumption that all is well within the EU. It most certainly is not. The EU is rotten to the core and is unravelling from within as events in Greece over the weekend demonstrate. 66% of Germans are now against Merkel and there are many across Europe who see Brexit as the potential catalyst to shake down the EU and force it to get it's house in good order. Yes, we might actually be a force for good in effecting change for the wider European community. 

British citizens have not had the opportunity to express an opinion on the EU with referendums on treaties as the citizens of other nations have. This democratic deficit has created an under current of unease about Europe and the obvious implication in the here and now that a vote to Remain will be forever. I want out but then I always have and am therefore not typical. My one real concern, and this is a biggie, is that while I have no qualms about the ability of British industry to compete, I have severe doubts about the quality of our civil administrators and politicians to execute Brexit efficiently. Just as we have cocked up our participation in Europe by not sending our best people to European institutions, we could easily underplay the execution risk of getting the mechanics of leaving right. We will need to muster our very best people who will have to be at the very top of their game to get it right. 

The Angry Planet

I'm not a man to indulge in any fantasy nonsense about Nostradamus or suggestions of the end of the world as promulgated by a bunch of Mexican tribesmen a few thousand years ago. There are though, some distinctly unsettling things going on. Almost all have a scientific explanation; it's the confluence of events which is unsettling.

Back at the beginning of November, I mentioned the Browning Newsletter, a private US weather service written by Evelyn Browning Gariss, which had warned of severe weather to come in the US as a result of El Nina.  Her latest update suggests that the unsettled conditions could persist for another 3 months. Much has been made of the El Nina phenomenon and it is undoubtedly the cause of the shock floods in Queensland. Unfortunately however, there's a bit more to the end result.

Obviously the global warming lobby in Australia has taken an early ride on the bandwagon marked, "it's all because of global warming, we told you so." That's interesting because we learn from EUReferendum that another of their number, one Tim Flannery, a professor of earth and life sciences at Macquarie University, chair of the Copenhagen Climate Council, and the 2007 Australian of the Year was a leading voice in convincing the state government that the predicable cycle of droughts and floods will no longer happen, and that the state, instead of beefing up defences from the last major event 30 years ago in 1974, should prepare for long-term water shortages.

EUReferendum goes on to say, ""Growing evidence," declared Flannery, "suggests that hotter soils, caused directly by global warming, have increased evaporation and transpiration and that the change is permanent. I believe the first thing Australians need to do is to stop worrying about 'the drought' - which is transient - and start talking about the new climate". It was input such as this that had the state government spending $1.2 billion on desalination plant, instead of flood defences, a plant now mothballed, as the flood waters mount."

In fact, the Australians have spent $13.2 bn on desalination plants. One wonders what the total cost is of letting the global warming industry, (for that is what it is). Worse, what will the future cost be?

Mount Anak Krakatau, previous eruption

Meanwhile, over in the Philipines the good residents of South Lampung have more pressing matters at hand. They're being evacuated as Mount Anak Krakatau has started throwing out ash. Not to be outdone, and flying the flag for Europe, Etna's getting in on showtime and is showing signs of animation.

As usual though, America has to be bigger and better than everyone else. The mysterious deaths of thousands of birds and fish have left many people perplexed and puzzled. That unexpected many earthquakes have occurred has simply added to the conundrum. We learn from Lew Rockwell though that one theory might have some pretty scary consequences if proved correct.

The theory is that the New Madrid fault zone is coming to life. The New Madrid fault zone is six times bigger than the San Andreas fault zone in California and it covers portions of Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi. The biggest earthquakes in the history of the United States were apparently caused by the New Madrid fault. 

Rockwell goes on to say that of late, 

  • According to the U.S. Geological Survey,  more than 500 measurable earthquakes have been recorded in central Arkansas just since September.
  • A magnitude-3.8 earthquake that shook north-central Indiana on December 30th is being called "unprecedented" It was strong enough to actually cause cracks along the ground and it was felt in portions of Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin and Kentucky.
  • More than 3,000 red-wing blackbirds fell out of the sky dead in the Arkansas town of Beebe on New Year's Eve.
  • Large numbers of dead birds were also found in Kentucky around Christmas.
  • Approximately 500 dead  blackbirds and starlings were also recently discovered in Pointe Coupee Parish, Louisiana.
  • Approximately 100,000 fish washed up on the shores of the Arkansas River just last week.

The implications of a bad thing happening on the scale of the New Madrid fault doesn't bear thinking about. Previous quakes in 1811 and 1812 were so big they remain seared in the collective folk memory. Follow the link to Rockwell to learn more. Some people attribute the BP Gulf oil spill to the drill uncorking an "oil volcano." The enthusiastic onlooker can keep up to date with the USGS site here.

The outright geeky who seek a more on the gound information source may like to check this site out. I'm not sure if it's one of those whacko "End of the World," nut job sites or not but this letter caught my attention, (bear in mind, it's not new and has pinged it's way around the web so I'm a bit suspicious),

Hello Raye;

I live on the New Madrid fault. And I can tell you this. The surface rupture of the roads and highways is out of control. Also, everyday of the week, the structure of my moms home is "cracking" and shifting. You can hear the walls and the surface crack.

Nearby is a dollar general store. In that parking lot there are 3 flagpoles that "vibrate" violently. (not shaking from wind) Each and everyday, the roads "blow" up potholes. U.S. 41 is ruptured severely.

Interstate 65 is also badly damaged. They keep trying to repave them but it doesn't work. The Cline Ave bridge at points is closing. This bridge and off ramps leads right into Inland steel and LTV steel and BP Amoco. So far, I believe 5-7 bridges have been shut down or are scheduled for closing because they are unsafe.

I monitor the earthquakes daily. And as you know there are far too many happening too quickly.

I believe the general public has been misled. In my opinion, the 2012 shift is happening now, but everyone has been conditioned to believe
that they still have time to prepare for the main event. Thats b.s. It doesn't happen all at once.

In Momence Illinois, some of the buildings are beginning to "sink". In Cedar Lake Indiana, the same is happening.

The bottom line is this; Buildings are cracking, parking lots can't be fixed, roads and bridges are closing every week, sidewalks are sinking and sinkholes are opening everywhere. At time day or night, you can literally feel the earth "vibrate" below your feet.

I'm in Northwest Indiana, and I believe we are about to get hit with a earthquake of biblical proportions. We are surrounded by propane, natural gas and BP Amoco refineries.

And, I'm more than concerned what will happen when the new madrid erupts.

best regards
Bob

Best of British then Bob; I might just watch the movie 2012 again.

We have our own seismic and volcanic events in Haslemere of course, which remain a wonder and much talked about phenonomen in the geographic community. Fortunately however. Mrs Flashbang has been in a mostly good mood of late so the emergency services and scientific boffins can stand down.