Brenda from Bristol with Crumble from Compton

Brenda from Bristol has a few words to say on behalf of all of us

Tonight, fifty or more Labour Members of Parliament will be staring into the bottom of their glasses contemplating P45's thudding onto their door mats in fifty one days time with love and best wishes from the Great British Public, (although it is regrettable to see that someone of Alan Johnson's calibre is standing down). Many of them will see it as a merciful release from the hell that is public life under their inept comedy act of a leader, Jeremy Corbyn. With all leave cancelled for political journalists the rest of us will be subjected to a daily battering from the media, led by that ghastly Kuensberg woman on the BBC. Thankfully, British elections are relatively short and sharp affairs and with the better weather, I am sure we'll muddle through as usual.

Theresa May has made what is probably the right decision in the best interests of the country, standing as she does at an extraordinary confluence of political events. If she gets the result she is aiming for it will strengthen our negotiating stance with Europe and indeed, will probably be welcomed by most of Europe who are if anything more keen to get the ball rolling to end the uncertainty for themselves inside the union. For her personally, she has launched a thundering broadside at her critics which is a bit cruel given the disarray her opponents are in but politically, is very astute.

Enquiring minds might though, be wondering if there are any other reasons which might explain why she has pulled the trigger now?

Of course there are.

I have been thinking for some time that Tony Blair is up to something. It was always unlikely that his ego would allow him to stand idly by and allow the Corbyn faction to completely purge the Labour Party and its machinery of all Blairites and everything they stand for. I also think whatever his plans are, they probably involve the repatriation of the exiled David Milliband from New York. That being the case it makes sense for Theresa May to announce an election before New Labour, or Old New Labour or whatever they'll call themselves have chance to launch and gain party and electoral traction. Clearly, inevitable electoral evisceration on the 8th June will trigger a Labour split or reverse takeover by the moderates but that, in whatever form, if successful still leaves them staring down the barrel of a new five year Tory term rather than the three that was left on the clock until this morning.

Second, my personal view of stock markets is that there is a high probability of a significant market event in the August - November time frame. I expect weakness in April to continue but rather than the 'sell in May and go away and don't come back 'till St Ledger Day,' mantra, I think we'll have a pretty strong summer rally. That will be the concluding move in what is a very mature bull market. The fall out from this market event will be significant, marking as it will not just the conclusion of the rally from the 2009 low but the end of much longer market cycles. I'll cover this in more detail another time but suffice to say, better to be Prime Minister with four years still on the clock, rather than eighteen months, when a bad thing happens economically.

Third, the summer Mediterranean Migration season has kicked off with large inflatables carrying hundreds of migrants leaving Turkey and Libya every day. This season is predicted to be a big one. If Turkey continues down the route it has chosen then a breakdown in relations with the EU could see the collapse of the agreement between the EU and Turkey to manage the flow of migrants. Pictures on our television news will not harm the Conservative campaign and will no doubt influence the imminent French elections and those in Germany later this year.

I'll be keeping a keen eye open for entertainment from Jezza and LibDem fall guy Tim Fallon who would look over-promoted running a minor branch of McDonalds. In fact, if he had four pens in his top pocket and a bunch of keys hanging off his belt he would be that man. The best fun though will be found watching the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Ruth Davidson. That woman is a feisty ball of fire and would make a great soldier...... except once she was.

You Can't Fix Stupid

Stop making stuff up Forrest

Stop making stuff up Forrest

The Labour party have decided to make the NHS the rallying point for their general election campaign, (again).

Ed Milliband and Andy Burnham spent much of yesterday trying to grab headlines in a "the Tories will just let you roll over and die," kind of frenzy. 

Unfortunately for them, no one is buying their made up nonsense. There is a reason for that and it's call the Mid Staffs Hospital scandal. Thats the place where 1200 citizens needlessly died, more than died in the area during the Black Death as has been famously pointed out. Moreover, 14 other trusts were named in the Keogh report on the issue. Thanks Labour, no need to be contrite or anything, just blame it on everyone else.

There is a growing realisation across the country that the daunting scale of the NHS and our rapidly changing demographic demands a thourgh review and repositioning of the service otherwise it's just going to become clogged up and fall over itself. Back in 1978 Mr Mackay, my geography teacher, pointed out that at the then rate of growth we'd all either be working for the NHS or patients in it by 2020. If Mr Mackay back in Inverness could figure that out thirty six years ago it shouldn't be difficult for Labour to when the problems are obvious to anyone associated with the NHS. And actually, Andy Burnham knows that full well having begun to privatise some services when he was Health Secretary.

I'd like to see the backgound research Labour have done into the NHS before announcing that they'll hire for example "10,000 nurses." It won't exist except on the back of a fag packet or beer mat because these people only think in sound bites and what will hold the attention of the Twitterati for more than six minutes. If they handed in GCSE homework of this standard they'd be off to see the Head for as performance review. 

All the parties are incapable of long term strategic thinking and it is racking up problems for us in the future across a raft of foreign and domestic policy issues.

Worse, in order to control the narrative of the day they just make it up. They use isolated examples to prove a case in which tens of billions of pounds and thousands of lives might be at stake. It's unforgivable really. I don't believe these men wilfully lie but I do believe they suffer from galloping incompetence driven by an overriding desire to be everyone's friend out as far as the news editors next deadline.

I doesn't matter which party you personally support, I just find the whole "making stuff up on the hoof," terribly demoralising and an insult to the electorate but then you know what they say, "you can't fix stupid."