Selective Memory

Ed Balls says abolishing the nom-dom statuses would be costly for Britain In an interview on BBC Radio Leeds in January,

I’m not yet sure if I should feel uplifted by the bountiful entertainment we receive daily through election campaign mishaps or if we should feel dispirited and dismayed that some of these utter buffoons might actually get elected on the day and god forbid, some of them might end up with the keys to something important.

Labour are of course leading the way with a daily car crash and this morning’s furore over non domicile residents is especially notable. In the spirit of “knock out a quick policy announcement, grab the headlines and don’t worry about the detail,” Labour did just that this morning and it was all going swimmingly until someone had the temerity to look at the detail. The whole nonsense has been unravelling ever since. First we discover that Ed Balls in an interview with Radio Leeds in January said, “If you abolish the whole status it will probably end up costing Britain money because some people will leave the country.” Quite.

Shabana Mahmood chucks some keroscene on the flames

Then we discover that Labour has befitted from some £12m in donations from non-doms various. Ed Balls appears to have gone missing from the airwaves and his aides have been stumbling through interviews making up more stuff as they try to make sense of the mess they've been abandoned to.

Quite frankly, I care as much about non doms as they do about me which is very little indeed. The problem here is that Labour are running an election campaign based on envy. If it doesn't fail, as it deserves to, then the economy will certainly do so in quick time shortly afterwards.

Here’s a take from my chum Marcus Ashworth at BESI,

It's the Equality stoopid... this election is coming down to two words Economy vs Equality. And I defy anyone who says this is all dull, it's a right humdinger and to misquote Samuel Johnson if you are tired of this election then you are tired of life. Golly even the sainted Nicola Sturgeon was booed as she made clear that the 2016 Holyrood election SNP manifesto would likely include a call for another independence referendum.

All the rules are being broken as Bliar is wheeled out from his political banishment despite the Labour manifesto writer John Cruddas being really rather rude about him only recently. UKIP rather enjoyed Europe having its five minutes but surely the man who tried to give us the Euro and doesn't trust the hallowed British public to make up their own minds is an odd ploy for Miliband who has fought and expects to win an election on a very clear rejection of everything New Labour? Maggie died 2 years ago so what next? My how things have changed since her time as the Marxist Kraken awakes from its slumbers.

Europe and Bliar were sharply shoved back in the closet though as Red Ed lives up to his moniker by promising to revoke something that goes back to Pitt the Younger. The Tories have already pointed out that Labour is not really going to revoke non-dom status as 1. They have no clue how much it would raise (or much more likely in the law of unintended consequences how much it would end up costing us all) 2. Would only apply to those who stay for more than 4 to 5yrs (cue a little spell abroad and hey presto I’m back under a new guise).



Soak the rich class war is the only platform Miliband has left under his Equality drive - Labour is utterly moribund under anything to do with the economy but no amount of further CEOs of FTSE100 companies signing letters is going to influence what is fast becoming the most divisive election since the war (Attlee was a silent assassin). The politics of envy are to the fore and logic is the car crash victim but Miliband has never shirked from believing that the lessons of the GFC are that the moral reprehension so ably stoked by the BBC/Guardianista bien pensant is a major vote winner and hang the inevitable consequences.
 

Ed sincerely believes it is his mission to change the UK permanently and finish the job Gordy Bruin so nearly achieved. So much for the canard that all the major politicos are alike as Farage trumpets - we have a red in tooth and claw old-fashioned socialist and he wants to alter a country near you. As does his new chum north of the border with her "have it all" message to Scotland that by voting SNP you get rid of Cameron and subsequently the Sassenachs entirely. By definition the 55% who voted for the Union in Sep should logically thereby vote Tory? Unfortunately that is a leap too far sadly methinks.

By rights Cameron should be walking away with this election but Crosby has kept him on a tight leash as he stood by and let Sturgeon and all the other left-wing rabble get away with unmitigated economic illiteracy that makes a mockery of all this coalition has achieved in averting the head on car crash that Gordy drove us towards. Clegg had his chance to be remembered favourably for his unheralded sterling work that kept his unhinged party from ruining the really quite radical work of the past 5yrs.

Unfortunately he has chosen to pick and mix selective memory - if he loses Sheffield Hallam it will be the ultimate irony for the man who petulantly reneged on the Boundary Commission changes - the egregious bias that might really usher in a Miliband Govt. We can't expect Labour to have any shame but any such Admin will be founded on a lie and as with the inevitable consequence of an ending of the Union as the prize that Sturgeon/Salmond will wreak as their prize for supporting a Tories out at any cost mandate then I guess we will really get what we voted for. It's life Jim but not as we know it...

 

Jockageddon Averted - Now It's England's Turn

Commentary and analysis from referendum observers is being produced by the bucket load, not all of it has substance. Here though are some salient points to note from friend Marcus Ashworth, Head of Fixed Income over at Espirito Santo, and he writes really, with no particular axe to grind..

"It was Crumble's Ma wot did it........ the silent majority came out in droves to register their understated desire to retain the Union, whereas in Glasgow the turnout was one of the lowest and 53.5/46.5% was not enough of a Yes vote to give Salmond a chance.  Despite all the puff he didn't get his vote out, and in what was probably the largest % turnout in a modern democracy ever (Aus doesn't count as semi-forced voting).  Bully boy tactics clearly backfired.

A double digit majority was what was required to put this issue to bed for now - though of course Salmond doesn't have that in his nature - "at this stage" was a particularly telling phrase in his most ungracious acceptance of defeat speech.  Evidently his only tactic left is to try and grab as much of the "vows" as possible.  However, Number 10 apparently has some other ideas and talk of Devo Max is being downplayed.

The chat from Downing St seeems to a swift volte face to try and redress the growing clamour from the Tory backbenches about what Gordy was allowed to promise in the final days?  For all the sense of panic it is evident that Gordy had this worked out many months ago but was only sanctioned to unleash the dogs of war in the final nail-biting furlong.  His last speech was apparently his best, though equally Cameron did his bit under unrelenting abuse.  The Better Together campaign was pretty much totally Scottish Labour led and Tory free, it is not the winner though.  Labour party conf in Manchester - Ed needs an even better speech this time - pref without that Disraeli one-nation blather.

The West Lothian question is the key piece of egregiousness that will have to be finally knocked on the head - something that Labour has conspicuously failed to do.  Scottish MPs will soon no longer be allowed to vote on England only matters - whilst of course English MPs have never been allowed to vote on Scottish matters.  This will pose a knotty one for Miliband because it could very well permanently emasculate Labour Govts if on budgetary matters there is not enough of an English-only MP backing.  The Barnett formula (which even its eponymous creator thinks should be scrapped) will stick in the craw.  If affords a permanent upward only subsidy of circa £1500 per person to Scotland over rest of UK.  This has not gone down well south of the border.  At all.

Cameron may have been knifed by Clegg on the Boundary Commission changes (which is the most outrageous breach of code for the so-called Mother of Parliaments) - but this way he may partly get his own back.  If he fails then he will really face the chop from the 1922 cmte.  Bear in mind Clacton by-election shortly will see a big slap for Cameron - and his image is very much of the "essay crisis".  Tricky times if he drops this ball on Constitutional change - especially if Salmond gets traction on any perceived signs of backsliding on the vows.

Labour has acted appallingly throughout this campaign being utterly self-serving and using every opportunity to try and turn a battle to save the Union into a call for a Labour Govt next May.  If Miliband fails to engage in a William Hague (as Leader of the House) overseen all-party talks, then it will be Labour who will carry the can for failing to deliver on the myriad of promises offered up by their last Prime Minister.

If only for that fact Cameron should emerge from this as the biggest winner and it's a 2nd big win for him after seeing off the Lib Dems on proportional representation, is he on a roll for winning in Europe as well?   OK that might be a leap of faith too far - still the gamble has largely paid off and the Tories can get to shape constitutional change whilst still in power.  That is a major, major difference from the expected situation that the next Labour Govt (as the polls still point to) would carve it up as they see fit.

........... welcome back Scotland

I find it hard to see (bar Gordy, Darling to some extent and of course the redoubtable Jim Murphy who will clearly get a Knighthood) who in Labour comes out of this with any accolades.  Miliband is a dead man walking - and he knows it.  It is one thing for Cameron to find it difficult to campaign in Scotland but for a Labour leader not to either basically bother to get up there until the last few moments and then not to be capable of walking through Edinburgh is a travesty of not just how the Yes campaign has been conducted but of Miliband's validity.  Clegg has proved that the Lib Dem vote has vaporised.  Question now is whether Salmond can survive, let's hope not as he allowed a very dirty campaign to get quite seriously out of hand - he deserves to go just for that alone.  Only Farage had the temerity to call him out for that."