Hot!

The summer of '76

Crumble in another hot place, far away and a long time ago.

Crumble in another hot place, far away and a long time ago.

One of the more eclectic items on my CV is that of Jungle Warfare Instructor. This was quite useful in the jungles of Belize and Brunei and the memories of those happy days were front and centre in my mind when I started working outside earlier. I’ve stopped now. It’s hot, very hot; 1976 hot. 1976 was, at the time and since, the longest and sunniest summer in memory. The good news was beer was 25p a pint and it cost a fiver to fill the car up. The bad news was record unemployment, a sick economy without cure, riots in Notting Hill and the England cricket team getting hit out of the ground all summer by the storming West Indians. The major revelation that summer was that girls, in fact everyone, started to wear much, much less than we were ever used to in this country. It was quite an eye opener really and a great time to be a teenage boy. Perhaps that’s why, despite all the bad things during that period, we mostly look back on it with misty eyed fond nostalgia.

Today's forecast

Weather; Changable.

I rather miss the days when the weather presenter looked and talked like your Geography teacher

I note the BBC have binned the Met Office as it's provider of weather forecasting services and will instead, be using the Dutch company MeteoGroup. None of this is actually news, we knew about the impending change a year ago and it is unlikely to lead to an improvement in the veracity of forecasts given the Dutch company will largely still be using Met Office data. 

Personally, I use the Norwegian forecaster which can be found at yr.no and find them, somewhat perversely, to be the best at forecasting local conditions in the UK.

Whoever is responsible for forecasting on television I am confident that the graphics/pretty girl arms race between broadcasters will continue unabated, except on local stations in the UK which tend to focus on a pretty girl / pretty boy arms race all of their own. 

They do great weather in Argentina...

For those who care not about tomorrows weather but nonetheless enjoy the forecasts I can happily direct you to weathergirlstv.com, a site devoted to weather girls from around the world (but with no Anne Lundon I have to say it is less than comprehensive). No prizes for spotting the common theme and here's a clue, it's not the weather.

Unpublished Letter to the Telegraph (2)

Hose_Pipe_Ban.png

I'm in a bit of a letters trough here, not many getting through the net,

Sir,

While we all wait in weary bemusement for the inevitable hose pipe ban announcement, it may yet dawn on members of Her Majesty's Government that citizens might welcome capital expenditure that protects their life's work and investment in their homes and communities, rather than the planned profligate and wanton expense on a high speed railway which is about as welcome in most counties through which it will travel as is the next flood.

plus ça change

German Bombers Over London

The Mill Tavern; December 1940

Old Tom: It were nasty last night Fred, Kent and the Channel ports all the way to Plymouth copped it.

Old Fred: Aye, right nasty. Looks like Birmingham's in for it today. Lord when will it ever stop?

Old Tom: Garage is low on fuel again, and there's no bread in the shops.

Old Fred: Aye, right you are there Tom, there's no one driving on the roads tha' night.

Old Tom: Evacuated the schools too. Still the Missus stocked up with tinned food and candles before it started so we'll see our way through all right......

Old Fred: Long as there's beer in the barrel Tom, we'll be just fine.

Old Tom: Oh lumme....... not the beer, please.........

Snow dump, December 2010

 The Mill Tavern; December 2010

Old Tom: It were nasty last night Fred, Kent and the Channel ports all the way to Plymouth copped it.

Old Fred: Aye, right nasty. Looks like Birmingham's in for it today. Lord when will it ever stop?

Old Tom: Garage is low on fuel again, and there's no bread in the shops.

Old Fred: Aye, right you are there Tom, there's no one driving on the roads tha' night.

Old Tom: Evacuated the schools too. Still the Missus stocked up with tinned food and candles before it started so we'll see our way through all right......

Old Fred: Long as there's beer in the barrel Tom, we'll be just fine.

Old Tom: Oh lumme....... not the beer, please.........

 

It's Gonna Get A Wee Bit Hill Billy.....

 

In, "Coldest Winter For 1000 Years," I quoted a weather guru called Vadim Zavodchenkov who is suggesting that Europe may be facing a long and distinctly chilly winter.

Now I don't want to drive everyone to despair but no sooner does one of these weather  Johnnies pop up with doom laden forecasts but another one steps up to do the same. A lady called Evelyn Browning Gariss of the Browning Newsletter is telling her subscribers that life is going to get very difficult in North America over the next few months. Given their weather usually becomes our weather within a week or two, "I'm listening Evelyn."

The Gartman letter quotes her as saying that the La Nina in the Pacific Ocean has taken the ocean temperatures there down quite sharply. 

Apparently, "Temperatures between 0.5°C – 1.0°C (0.9° - 1.8°F) below normal are considered a “weak” La Nina. When the chill is more than 1.0°C (1.8°F) below normal, the event is “moderate.” Now temperatures range from 1.4°C (2.5°F) below normal in the central Pacific around Fiji to 2.0°C (3.6°F) off the coast of Peru."

She notes further that although the temperatures in the central Pacific are holding steady at the current rather archly low levels, they are continuing to fall in the eastern Pacific off the coast of S. America. She also notes that it is not just cool water temperatures that she finds worrisome. There are other global weather effects in place that serve to make the current La Nina material and worrisome. She summarises her findings with the following rather ominous statement:

If all of these are combined, then the current La Nina is the strongest in over 70 years. It is almost as intense as the La Nina in the winters of 1955-1956. It is currently almost two standard deviations below normal and most models expect the phenomenon to intensify over the next three months.

 At least Evelyn isn't quite the pessimistic figure of doom that young Vadim is............... nonetheless, as soon as Mrs Flashbang gets wind of this you can expect panic buying to be in full swing in the candles and loo rolls aisle of Sainsbury's in Liphook. I think I may put an order into Majestic for an industrial quantity of wine............. just in case.

The Secret of Good Weather Forecasting.... Timing!

People who really know about good comedy are our motely collection of weather forecasters. We're all aware that the reputation of the Met Office rightly took an indecent battering last year after their early call of a "barbecue summer," last year left us bemused and bewildered by the end of August.

This morning though, the Telegraph broght us the welcome and cheering news from an outfit called Positive Weather Solutions  that we're in for a blistering hot summer.  Founded in 2006, PWS are apparently, "already carving out a reputation for accurate forecasts based on weather patterns, long-term temperature cycles and a 30-year statistics database."

Bloody well done chaps.

Unfortunately, as luck.. or bad luck would have it, a volcano went "bang" in Iceland just after midnight.

As every middle aged man in Haslemere who can remember a sniff of his O level Geography will tell you; volcano = bad weather. That is, start thinking cooler temperatures and rain brought to us on the prevailing North Westerly winds. There are some more technical details involved here but they're mostly lost in the mists of time.  I always had the seat next to the radiator and window in Geography so missed some of the volcano detail thing.

Looks like Jonathan Powell, the firm’s senior forecaster, might have had the seat next to me and may also have missed some of the other bits of geography marked, "factors that influence the weather." He said in the article, “There will be stifling temperatures this summer, making it possibly the warmest UK summer on record began and placing it at least the top three warmest summers recorded."

As we know, timing is everything.